{"schema_version": "research-pack/1", "object": {"id": "optical", "title": "光模块", "one_liner": "数据中心光模块，硅光与 CPO 的竞争焦点"}, "facts": [], "timeline": [], "who": [{"id": "who:carrio_research", "person_id": "carrio_research", "name": "Carrio", "at": "2026-10-19T14:57:03.000Z", "text": "- Carrio｜人｜Carrio 判断：Q2 产能已近 20 万只/月，年底 800G 与 1.6T 目标约 65 万只，若 11 月 5 日数据兑现则光模块业务将远超有线电视｜2026-10-19｜https://x.com/carrioresearch/status/2112196335084691525｜/p/carrio_research", "source_ids": ["src:69f9a36d354065c8940c125b"]}, {"id": "who:dawson_lee", "person_id": "dawson_lee", "name": "Dawson Lee", "at": "2026-10-18T18:46:51.000Z", "text": "- Dawson Lee｜人｜Dawson Lee：InnoLight 与 Eoptolink 占全球超大规模 800G/1.6T 光模块逾 65%，Coherent 与 Lumentum 垄断 InP/GaAs 激光器上游｜2026-10-18｜https://x.com/LiDaosen/status/2111891776654966793｜/p/dawson_lee", "source_ids": ["src:c711f435cb3fbf40ad167934"]}, {"id": "who:damnang", "person_id": "damnang", "name": "Damnang", "at": "2026-10-18T18:18:40.000Z", "text": "- Damnang｜人｜Damnang 转述 scale-up 光引擎市场 2030 年将达 900 亿美元、较 2026 年 2.79 亿美元增长 322 倍｜2026-10-18｜https://x.com/damnang2/status/2111884685492322361｜/p/damnang", "source_ids": ["src:5702a9e8bee0d73775e9298c"]}, {"id": "who:jukan", "person_id": "jukan", "name": "Jukan", "at": "2026-10-16T15:14:55.000Z", "text": "- Jukan｜人｜三星电子据报考虑通过并购强化硅光子代工能力｜2026-10-16｜https://x.com/jukan05/status/2111113665495928914｜/p/jukan", "source_ids": ["src:fc605597bc2ae9ba1738b724"]}, {"id": "who:photon_cap", "person_id": "photon_cap", "name": "Photon Capital", "at": "2026-10-16T06:59:26.000Z", "text": "- Photon Capital｜人｜Photon Capital 总结 NPO 与 CPO 技术问题：NPO 光学引擎与 ASIC 封装分离改善热隔离，CPO 减少电损耗但增加热耦合｜2026-10-16｜https://x.com/PhotonCap/status/2110988975834022125｜/p/photon_cap", "source_ids": ["src:f00526019b9e91f3dba9def1"]}, {"id": "who:ben_bajarin", "person_id": "ben_bajarin", "name": "Ben Bajarin", "at": "2026-10-15T20:59:41.000Z", "text": "- Ben Bajarin｜人｜Ben Bajarin 称 Lightmatter 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"said_at": "10月18日", "source_ids": [], "evidence_state": "missing_source"}, {"id": "claim:1ba0686e1f2c6b692043748c", "issue_id": "wp_afcbb78dcca9", "person_id": "credo", "who": "Credo", "text": "1.6T ZeroFlap 集成光学 DSP 与硅光 PIC", "said_at": "9月23日", "source_ids": [], "evidence_state": "missing_source"}, {"id": "claim:f922e2d018e179af2c287c21", "issue_id": "wp_fb4588c23c97", "person_id": "carrio_research", "who": "Carrio", "text": "英伟达新可插拔 USFP 明年量产", "said_at": "10月17日", "source_ids": [], "evidence_state": "missing_source"}, {"id": "claim:7f849941d5c285b5c20bc42b", "issue_id": "wp_fb4588c23c97", "person_id": "photon_cap", "who": "Photon Capital", "text": "转述：官方未披露 USFP 上市或量产时间", "said_at": "10月13日", "source_ids": [], "evidence_state": "missing_source"}, {"id": "claim:4cc22abd9685c01bc25c78c5", "issue_id": "wp_3611189a6119", "person_id": "carrio_research", "who": "Carrio", "text": "英伟达称 CPO 已在出货，Meta 累计 180 万系统小时", "said_at": "10月17日", "source_ids": [], "evidence_state": "missing_source"}, {"id": "claim:0b18420843cb6a76d4be2b0f", "issue_id": "wp_3611189a6119", "person_id": "trendforce", "who": "TrendForce", "text": "2027 年测试架构收敛，2028 年验证量产就绪", "said_at": "10月14日", "source_ids": [], "evidence_state": "missing_source"}, {"id": "claim:5b24d8c68618b4d4e22fd300", "issue_id": "wp_37b883cd051f", "person_id": "carrio_research", "who": "Carrio", "text": "转述：二期 CPO 年中断率 0.2%，可插拔 1.22%", "said_at": "10月15日", "source_ids": [], "evidence_state": "missing_source"}, {"id": "claim:32dfefb4aa3abf1704b08cc5", "issue_id": "wp_37b883cd051f", "person_id": "photon_cap", "who": "Photon Capital", "text": "200G 微环热敏已缓解，对准与热串扰仍关键", "said_at": "10月16日", "source_ids": [], "evidence_state": "missing_source"}, {"id": "claim:e96b4995bdd04b9876ca8f01", "issue_id": "wp_a0a4157832a9", "person_id": "carrio_research", "who": "Carrio", "text": "Arista 称交期从约 3 个月拉到 9–12 个月", "said_at": "10月18日", "source_ids": [], "evidence_state": "missing_source"}, {"id": "claim:592e8173f0c45652c5fd03ef", "issue_id": "wp_7f598a5b9934", "person_id": "dawson_lee", "who": "Dawson Lee", "text": "2026 年 1.6T 需求上修至 1800 万只，硅光超 52%", "said_at": "10月15日", "source_ids": [], "evidence_state": "missing_source"}, {"id": "claim:cf401405fcbf9bb8aadff5c8", "issue_id": "wp_7c189824f5d5", "person_id": "photon_cap", "who": "Photon Capital", "text": "转述：Lumentum 组件产能售罄至 2029 年初", "said_at": "10月11日", "source_ids": [], "evidence_state": "missing_source"}], "relations": [], "sources": [{"id": "src:40e4895c6e6060ff820a8da3", "url": "https://x.com/carrioresearch/status/2111795969364824211", "who": "Carrio", "person_id": "carrio_research", "published_at": "2026-10-18T12:26:09.000Z", "evidence_role": "unknown", "event_id": "ev_ocp2026_optics_shortage", "item_id": "48699", "source_role": "KOL", "source_tier": "firsthand"}, {"id": "src:3b1025f6bd9b26cf2280a4b1", "url": "https://x.com/carrioresearch/status/2111378925440172265", "who": "Carrio", "person_id": "carrio_research", "published_at": 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