存储 · Hourahead

# 存储（技术节点）

来源 Hourahead /o/dram · 更新于 2026-09-09



DRAM 供给与周期，HBM 挤占产能的落点

research-pack/1｜数据截止 2026-10-19T12:00:03.000Z｜窗口30天｜共13条｜档位 anonymous｜partial

> 谁在说 · 时间线为订户内容（https://hourahead.ai/enter）

## 数字账

- dram_spot｜DRAM 现货价｜27.25 $/GB @ 2026-09-09｜TrendForce 2026-09-09 18:10 GMT+8；DDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) 4800/5600 session average 54.50 USD/颗。yaml 单位是 $/GB，16Gb=2GB，54.50/2=27.25。原文是颗价，换算写在本 note。｜主页｜https://www.trendforce.com/price/dram/dram_spot [fact:444711400ee2c24f7cafe712] 来源 src:3aafc9bb67fccf1f648f365e

## 在跟的事

- DDR4 现货横盘后，南亚 4Q26 涨幅卡在哪一档 [wp_79b4e308f4f3]
  - 何时见分晓：四季度合约价对账
  - TrendForce：南亚 4Q26 ASP 预计再涨 10%，DDR4 现货仍 46.32 美元 [claim:f714dd1041cc2c904e956105] · 10月7日 · missing_source · 出处 未记录
  - Jukan：转述：南亚通知客户合约价最高上调 20% [claim:7bfe4a24c45d05ece5dd7b36] · 10月7日 · missing_source · 出处 未记录
  - 议题出处 src:1b7f86a9a172c6c7480f2e1f,src:4f2f63b82e8cf42a6964c0e5,src:7ab37c16ed4d3316f5d91b0e,src:b1e003c2e72f09a3dd6c2d7e,src:bef04de4ef29e048c6146024
- DDR5 现货过 60 美元后，4Q 价格是转跌还是续涨 [wp_6d6883b282f3]
  - 何时见分晓：本季现货拐点观测
  - Damnang：转述：专家称 DDR5 超 60 美元，最早四季度转跌 [claim:609c2cc5c73919c52c748a73] · 10月18日 · missing_source · 出处 未记录
  - TrendForce：4Q 合约仍看涨 10-15%，模组约束仍在加剧 [claim:b4eb9345f0b147b65fcc0cd0] · 10月19日 · missing_source · 出处 未记录
  - 议题出处 src:023e385b768597a81e3c3a65,src:4f2f63b82e8cf42a6964c0e5,src:7ab37c16ed4d3316f5d91b0e,src:bef04de4ef29e048c6146024,src:d33bbefdac6512b463bbb74c
- HBM 占比升向 30% 时，常规缺口能否撑到 2028 初 [wp_4dfaa3a4a029]
  - 何时见分晓：新产能投片后对账
  - Jukan：转述：南亚称 2027 初位元几乎零增长，短缺到 2028 初 [claim:157ada94a9f0578829bcb882] · 10月14日 · missing_source · 出处 未记录
  - Ben Bajarin：明年年底 CXMT 月增 10 万片，9 月 30 日称无追平时点 [claim:af91e8c5251884860b06c7bd] · 10月1日 · missing_source · 出处 未记录
  - 议题出处 src:0d80cb33ef26080b02d7cb34,src:0eb33b6912191c269fa01160,src:26c28fe725c06bb5c8c2ec6f,src:2a939c7826401514adbe1b12,src:40c8bad5c4fd4d4bb136c537,src:4a0a92cc2c9dc865d0aaa006,src:59ecbe75cd324715a525a8f6,src:8421584db67cbe3108827395,src:bb3948ea93a8ce980f5e09a3,src:c2aacb0fc30357d989f1e803,src:da8e53ea70b0487cc741650a

## 谁在说

- TrendForce｜硬件｜TrendForce：4Q26 eSSD 价格谈判进行中，DRAM 模组约束加剧，T-glass 扩产受关注｜2026-10-19｜https://x.com/trendforce/status/2112151792578629786｜/o/trendforce [who:trendforce]
- Photon Capital｜人｜Photon Capital：Samsung OCP 2026 演示指向 KV Cache 或成下一个 AI 推理瓶颈（HBM）｜2026-10-19｜https://x.com/PhotonCap/status/2112038814273458562｜/p/photon_cap [who:photon_cap]
- Carrio｜人｜Carrio：Micron 有 26 份多年 take-or-pay 合同、客户承诺 320 亿美元，内存周期见顶迹象不足｜2026-10-18｜https://x.com/carrioresearch/status/2111773364406902854｜/p/carrio_research [who:carrio_research]
- Damnang｜人｜Damnang 转述专家观点：DDR5 价格超过 60 美元，内存价格最早可能在今年第四季度转为下跌｜2026-10-18｜https://x.com/damnang2/status/2111658952471756801｜/p/damnang [who:damnang]
- Dawson Lee｜人｜Dawson Lee：超大规模厂商与代工厂已争抢2029–2030年ASML机台档期，High-NA EUV与16-Hi HBM4使前端WFE成为非弹性收费站｜2026-10-18｜https://x.com/LiDaosen/status/2111611851645809052｜/p/dawson_lee [who:dawson_lee]
- Jukan｜人｜南亚科技在财报电话会称DRAM结构性短缺难以在2027年及2028年初前缓解，2027年初位元出货量几乎零增长｜2026-10-14｜https://x.com/jukan05/status/2110181190271738015｜/p/jukan [who:jukan]

> 谁在说 · 时间线为订户内容（/enter）

## 时间线

90 天河 · 578 条 · 订阅后可见

## 出处

- src:3aafc9bb67fccf1f648f365e https://www.trendforce.com/price/dram/dram_spot · 未归属 · 日期未记录
- src:b1e003c2e72f09a3dd6c2d7e https://x.com/trendforce/status/2107440850275799278 · TrendForce · 2026-10-06T12:00:27.000Z
- src:1b7f86a9a172c6c7480f2e1f https://x.com/jukan05/status/2107665796499718407 · Jukan · 2026-10-07T02:54:19.000Z
- src:bef04de4ef29e048c6146024 https://x.com/trendforce/status/2107704976172794323 · TrendForce · 2026-10-07T05:30:00.000Z
- src:7ab37c16ed4d3316f5d91b0e https://x.com/trendforce/status/2105281618617274854 · TrendForce · 2026-09-30T13:00:26.000Z
- src:4f2f63b82e8cf42a6964c0e5 https://x.com/trendforce/status/2102676865550860781 · TrendForce · 2026-09-23T08:30:05.000Z
- src:023e385b768597a81e3c3a65 https://x.com/damnang2/status/2111658952471756801 · Damnang · 2026-10-18T03:21:41.000Z
- src:d33bbefdac6512b463bbb74c https://x.com/trendforce/status/2112151792578629786 · TrendForce · 2026-10-19T12:00:03.000Z
- src:59ecbe75cd324715a525a8f6 https://x.com/trendforce/status/2104964637284290634 · TrendForce · 2026-09-29T16:00:52.000Z
- src:0eb33b6912191c269fa01160 https://x.com/jukan05/status/2110181190271738015 · Jukan · 2026-10-14T01:29:35.000Z
- src:40c8bad5c4fd4d4bb136c537 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUS6L1-Phe0&t=101s · Ben Bajarin · 2026-09-28T00:00:00Z
- src:da8e53ea70b0487cc741650a https://x.com/BenBajarin/status/2105399989648392451 · Ben Bajarin · 2026-09-30T20:50:48.000Z
- src:0d80cb33ef26080b02d7cb34 https://x.com/LiDaosen/status/2110468753507135762 · Dawson Lee · 2026-10-14T20:32:16.000Z
- src:8421584db67cbe3108827395 https://x.com/trendforce/status/2109615076571238741 · TrendForce · 2026-10-12T12:00:03.000Z
- src:2a939c7826401514adbe1b12 https://x.com/StragglerLiu/status/2111730503154037236 · Straggler Liu · 2026-10-18T08:06:00.000Z
- src:4a0a92cc2c9dc865d0aaa006 https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiggFBVV95cUxOUldhNFNILVFicXI2VmYtcDhfQkZGd0VFcXVtZ19KX2tHZ25hVXNIdGhvUjQwZ05Hci0zTjYzT21FazVDYnp1UkFFY0cxWUI4bGtBU1diTlVwUFA4aTdjamh3RGVRVVJoZWVWdnM2d0laakNrNjByV0NURTk0eS1QREJ30gGWAUFVX3lxTE15NHVFODhMUjBFY243VnlJRU9OQmJ3QjJKNk4yTUFiaFJzX2w0NWZtYk4wV2F2Rk5adVFEMlh2emY5dEdadllVX2Rob2t1SGxiS0lEeUlTWUEtV3BXbHBMV2tHOTRDTmFvaG5sZmZ2UXhXXy1DSGFSbFFpNVVpVmJGcFE4MHNKRXUxQ1gxNUJxWmJpX01lZw?oc=5 · Chosunbiz · 2026-10-19T07:49:00+00:00
- src:26c28fe725c06bb5c8c2ec6f https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxPZWhfNUhYYTVPQUJZQmw4azJVMnpCV0F1OV9wWWduNE1LQjNTcXRsTGpmLTduV3FhZnFISE5zcDhfRTdYVUVvZ1A1a0lGZUs1a25oOTg3QjFhUFRINkw4bHpSZGJ6Tk5XczZUcUtjcnVjZ01sc0Y4QU0tRFlOZENpdmh5MmdZaWRUa2x2cQ?oc=5 · DIGITIMES · 2026-10-19T07:43:43+00:00
- src:c2aacb0fc30357d989f1e803 https://news.google.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?oc=5 · 永豐金證券 · 2026-10-19T10:34:10+00:00
- src:bb3948ea93a8ce980f5e09a3 https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiV0FVX3lxTE5SclBGQk5xdWdZV2E0aEVNMTd3cHUtdnkzNFBza2d6bkdjRnc4QjZHZ1hJSGg2UjZDV2pITTRZTmZQZEFEclVtS1Myb0s4N2pPd1g2Mnp6cw?oc=5 · The Korea Herald · 2026-10-18T02:02:21+00:00
- src:fb0fd137c8a1a51b5f94a97a https://x.com/PhotonCap/status/2112038814273458562 · Photon Capital · 2026-10-19T04:31:07.000Z
- src:f0950bf7bfdcc6e90d228725 https://x.com/carrioresearch/status/2111773364406902854 · Carrio · 2026-10-18T10:56:19.000Z
- src:53c6f8e5ac777673f049713b https://x.com/LiDaosen/status/2111611851645809052 · Dawson Lee · 2026-10-18T00:14:31.000Z

## 缺口

permission_limited；missing_source

## 怎么用

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HOURAHEAD关于 · 往期 · 2026-10-20 00:26